Taxpayers Leave New York

The Empire Center for New York State Policy released a quality report on Empire State Exodus

The report provides enlightening data on the migration patterns in NY and its implications for policy makers.  It should concern NY policy makers.

We have regularly reported on the negative impact of high income taxes on creating a Best State. See New York Jobs: Will they come back?


According to the Empire Center report, New York experienced the nation’s largest loss of residents to other states—a net domestic migration outflow of over 1.5 million, or 8 percent of its population at the start of the decade.This follows a 1.7 million loss in the 1990’s.  Taxpayers are leaving New York.  High income taxpayers, in particular, are leaving.

The States that benefited from New York’s migration losses were Florida, New Jersey, Connecticut, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.  Florida gained over 314,000 taxpayers from NY representing a staggering $9.1 billion of tax base.  It has no state income tax.  New Jersey gained 167,067 taxpayers and $5.7 billion of tax base. North Carolina gained 82,169 and $1.85 billion. Connecticut gained 51,455 and $2.77 billion. Pennsylvania gained 88,961 and $1.52 billion.  New York has lost over $29 billion in tax base in the 2000’s alone.

Tax policy for states must be established with a view of what other options people have.  People have choices within the US as well as  other countries regarding where to live and be taxed.  People are voting with their feet in NY.  They prefer lower tax rates.  The chart below on New York Net Domestic Migration by Year is from the study.  New York has lost almost 1 million people in the 2000’s to other states.

New York politicians continue to raise taxes and are taxing a shrinking base.  See States are Raising taxes

New York State is in a negative cycle downward.  At some point it might look to draw more people in by lowering its rates.  Unfortunately until it does so, people will keep leaving. The entire listing of taxpayer migration by state to (from) New York is listed below courtesy of the Empire Center for New York State Policy.

Top States for Jobs September 2009

The Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS released the September 2009 List of State Unemployment last week.  23 States saw unemployment rise from August, 19 saw decreases and 8 were unchanged.  The US Unemployment rate for September 2009 was 9.8%.

New York was the Worst State for Jobs in September with a loss of 81,700 jobs.

 

Texas (-44,700), California (-39,300), Wisconsin(-21,700), and Michigan (-21,500) rounded out the 5 Worst States
for
Jobs in September. Michigan continues as the Worst State for Employment with a staggering 15.3%
unemployment rate.
Nevada, Alabama, Oregon and West Virginia are also in the 5 Worst States for Employment.
California is not far behind
as a worst state for jobs. See our post on California Jobs Shrinking


 


 
The Best State for Jobs in September 2009 was Indiana which gained 4,400 jobs. The Best State for Employment
was North Dakota with a 4.2% unemployment rate. Only 3 other states qualified as Best States for Jobs in September.
They were New Mexico (+3,700), Nevada (+2,700), and Utah (+2,500). Go to our lastest
September list of job openings by state
for more on where the job openingsAll states and the District of Columbia recorded statistically significant increases in their jobless rates on a year on year basis.
Michigan had the largest increase +6.4%.  Nevada, 6.0% and Alabama at 5.3% also had the highest increases in the U.S.
North Dakota had the smallest increase at +.9%.  The Year on Year change of Unemployment for all 50 States is below.

 

Rank State Sep-08 Sep-09 Change
1 NORTH DAKOTA 3.3 4.2 0.9
2 NEBRASKA 3.4 4.9 1.5
3 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.2 4.8 1.6
4 ALASKA 6.7 8.4 1.7
5 LOUISIANA 5.6 7.4 1.8
5 MISSISSIPPI 7.4 9.2 1.8
7 ARKANSAS 5.2 7.1 1.9
7 MINNESOTA 5.4 7.3 1.9
7 VERMONT 4.8 6.7 1.9
10 COLORADO 5 7 2
10 MONTANA 4.7 6.7 2
12 KANSAS 4.6 6.9 2.3
13 CONNECTICUT 6 8.4 2.4
14 IOWA 4.2 6.7 2.5
15 MARYLAND 4.6 7.2 2.6
15 VIRGINIA 4.1 6.7 2.6
17 OKLAHOMA 4 6.7 2.7
18 HAWAII 4.4 7.2 2.8
18 UTAH 3.4 6.2 2.8
20 MAINE 5.6 8.5 2.9
21 ARIZONA 6 9.1 3.1
21 DELAWARE 5.2 8.3 3.1
21 NEW YORK 5.8 8.9 3.1
21 TEXAS 5.1 8.2 3.1
25 MISSOURI 6.3 9.5 3.2
25 PENNSYLVANIA 5.6 8.8 3.2
27 NEW HAMPSHIRE 3.9 7.2 3.3
27 NEW MEXICO 4.4 7.7 3.3
27 OHIO 6.8 10.1 3.3
30 IDAHO 5.4 8.8 3.4
31 GEORGIA 6.6 10.1 3.5
31 INDIANA 6.1 9.6 3.5
33 TENNESSEE 6.9 10.5 3.6
33 WISCONSIN 4.7 8.3 3.6
33 WYOMING 3.2 6.8 3.6
36 MASSACHUSETTS 5.6 9.3 3.7
37 ILLINOIS 6.7 10.5 3.8
37 WASHINGTON 5.5 9.3 3.8
39 DC 7.4 11.4 4
39 KENTUCKY 6.9 10.9 4
39 NEW JERSEY 5.8 9.8 4
39 NORTH CAROLINA 6.8 10.8 4
43 SOUTH CAROLINA 7.5 11.6 4.1
44 FLORIDA 6.7 11 4.3
45 CALIFORNIA 7.8 12.2 4.4
46 RHODE ISLAND 8.5 13 4.5
47 WEST VIRGINIA 4.3 8.9 4.6
48 OREGON 6.8 11.5 4.7
49 ALABAMA 5.4 10.7 5.3
50 NEVADA 7.3 13.3 6
51 MICHIGAN 8.9 15.3 6.4

California Jobs September 2009: Shrinking

California continues to lose jobs.

The California Employment Development Department just released September numbers and California jobs declined by 39,300 during the month.  Unemployment was 12.2% for September, a slight improvement due to an upward revision of August to 12.3%

More unemployment is not a surprise considering all the problems the state has.  (See Why California is a Worst State for Jobs)

 

The Bureau of Labor Statisticsis is scheduled to release the nation’s September List of State Unemployment on Wednesday October 20.  August was bad news.  (See August 2009 Best and Worst States for Employment) California’s release on Friday is a preview of more state releases to come next week.

September should show more State Employment decreases as the September US Unemployment rate increased to 9.8% from 9.7%.

The LA Times ran a story California Job Losses Keep Climbing on Friday as well about the outlook for California Jobs.  Los Angeles County’s unemployment rate soared to 12.7% in September, upfrom 12.2% in August. Industries including leisure and hospitality,manufacturing and construction shed jobs over the month.  The Bay Area saw its unemployment rate decrease from August. The jobless rates in Napa County, at 8.7%,and the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metro Division, at 9.2%,are among the lowest in the state. All five metro divisions in the Bay Area improved. California Jobs do not look like they will be improving significantly soon.  See also California Job Openings September 2009

The September 2009 California Employment by County List follows:

County Labor Force Employed Jobless Jobless %
ALAMEDA 768,700 681,500 87,200 11.30%
ALPINE 420 350 60 15.20%
AMADOR 17,960 15,790 2,170 12.10%
BUTTE 105,400 92,600 12,800 12.20%
CALAVERAS 21,000 18,000 3,000 14.30%
COLUSA 11,160 9,540 1,620 14.50%
CONTRA COSTA 529,900 470,400 59,400 11.20%
DEL NORTE 11,870 10,460 1,410 11.90%
EL DORADO 91,200 81,000 10,200 11.20%
FRESNO 452,200 388,600 63,500 14.10%
GLENN 12,590 10,860 1,730 13.80%
HUMBOLDT 60,000 53,800 6,200 10.30%
IMPERIAL 76,900 53,700 23,200 30.10%
INYO 8,980 8,120 860 9.50%
KERN 377,400 325,100 52,300 13.90%
KINGS 59,700 51,400 8,300 13.90%
LAKE 25,890 22,080 3,800 14.70%
LASSEN 13,510 11,910 1,600 11.80%
LOS ANGELES 4,923,800 4,298,200 625,700 12.70%
MADERA 70,400 61,700 8,700 12.30%
MARIN 134,600 123,900 10,700 8.00%
MARIPOSA 9,980 9,100 880 8.80%
MENDOCINO 43,420 39,040 4,390 10.10%
MERCED 106,700 89,900 16,700 15.70%
MODOC 4,050 3,600 450 11.10%
MONO 7,880 7,070 810 10.30%
MONTEREY 217,000 195,400 21,700 10.00%
NAPA 75,600 69,100 6,500 8.70%
NEVADA 49,730 44,290 5,440 10.90%
ORANGE 1,624,900 1,472,400 152,500 9.40%
PLACER 175,100 155,300 19,800 11.30%
PLUMAS 10,210 8,790 1,420 13.90%
RIVERSIDE 915,600 780,800 134,800 14.70%
SACRAMENTO 687,900 604,200 83,700 12.20%
SAN BENITO 24,800 21,700 3,100 12.50%
SAN BERNARDINO 867,500 749,700 117,800 13.60%
SAN DIEGO 1,560,000 1,400,200 159,800 10.20%
SAN FRANCISCO 447,100 403,700 43,400 9.70%
SAN JOAQUIN 304,600 257,400 47,100 15.50%
SAN LUIS OBISPO 138,400 125,900 12,500 9.00%
SAN MATEO 380,800 346,400 34,400 9.00%
SANTA BARBARA 221,600 202,700 18,800 8.50%
SANTA CLARA 886,600 782,200 104,400 11.80%
SANTA CRUZ 147,900 132,800 15,100 10.20%
SHASTA 84,000 71,600 12,300 14.70%
SIERRA 1,540 1,330 210 13.70%
SISKIYOU 18,870 16,320 2,550 13.50%
SOLANO 214,400 189,700 24,700 11.50%
SONOMA 262,400 236,400 26,000 9.90%
STANISLAUS 243,200 206,000 37,200 15.30%
SUTTER 41,600 35,300 6,300 15.10%
TEHAMA 26,220 22,630 3,590 13.70%
TRINITY 4,700 3,950 750 15.90%
TULARE 206,300 175,600 30,700 14.90%
TUOLUMNE 25,900 22,610 3,300 12.70%
VENTURA 428,800 381,600 47,200 11.00%
YOLO 97,500 86,900 10,600 10.90%
YUBA 28,800 23,700 5,100 17.80%

Best States for Jobs September 2009, 48 States See Opening Decreases

We ran our September 2009 Best and Worst States for Job openings.  Job Openings dropped an alarming 6.2% on September 30 as compared to July 31.  This is particularly discouraging as we had seen our only increase in job openings this year in July.  This reversal ratifies the year long downward trend.  We develop our analysis from data listed by the nation’s largest job posting service CareerBuilder.com.  It is a good proxy for job openings nationwide.

Job Openings nationwide shrank in September to 217,040 from 231,370 in July, a drop of 14,330 job openings.

48 States saw jobs shrink.  Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana saw the biggest percentage job opening lossesKentucky Jobs, with an increase of only 180 job openings. and Utah Jobs, up 30, were the Top States for Jobs and the only 2 states in the nation that showed improvement since July 31.

California Jobs shrank the most numerically with an 1197 loss at September 30. Texas Jobs, Florida Jobs and Pennsylvania Jobs showed large losses in numbers in September.  ( I will post analysis of Job Opening Losses during the Obama Administration after unemployment numbers are released for September)

The list of Best and Worst States for Jobs as of September 2009 follows:

30-Sep 31-Jul +/- % Change
1 California 22253 23450 -1197 -5.10%
2 Texas 18219 19373 -1154 -5.96%
3 Florida 14072 14927 -855 -5.73%
4 New York 12410 12667 -257 -2.03%
5 Illinois 11243 11747 -504 -4.29%
6 Pennsylvania 10407 11193 -786 -7.02%
7 New Jersey 7901 7938 -37 -0.47%
8 Ohio 8171 8286 -115 -1.39%
9 Virginia 7162 7547 -385 -5.10%
10 North Carolina 6486 6860 -374 -5.45%
11 Maryland 5928 6128 -200 -3.26%
12 Georgia 5824 6470 -646 -9.98%
13 Arizona 5357 5701 -344 -6.03%
14 Massachusetts 5261 5269 -8 -0.15%
15 Michigan 5177 5443 -266 -4.89%
16 Washington 4407 4940 -533 -10.79%
17 Indiana 5282 5589 -307 -5.49%
18 Missouri 4518 5109 -591 -11.57%
19 Colorado 3815 3937 -122 -3.10%
20 Tennessee 4627 4862 -235 -4.83%
21 Connecticut 3893 4271 -378 -8.85%
22 Wisconsin 3855 4816 -961 -19.95%
23 Minnesota 3494 3754 -260 -6.93%
24 South Carolina 3239 3470 -231 -6.66%
25 Kansas 2816 3281 -465 -14.17%
26 Louisiana 2898 3067 -169 -5.51%
27 Kentucky 3468 3285 183 5.57%
28 Iowa 2268 2460 -192 -7.80%
29 Alabama 2352 2883 -531 -18.42%
30 Oklahoma 2115 2339 -224 -9.58%
31 Nevada 1718 1864 -146 -7.83%
32 Oregon 1808 1986 -178 -8.96%
33 Mississippi 1475 1684 -209 -12.41%
34 New Mexico 1435 1468 -33 -2.25%
35 Utah 1370 1340 30 2.24%
36 Arkansas 1292 1557 -265 -17.02%
37 Nebraska 1135 1139 -4 -0.35%
38 Delaware 996 1030 -34 -3.30%
39 Alaska 659 1058 -399 -37.71%
40 Hawaii 668 748 -80 -10.70%
41 West Virginia 832 914 -82 -8.97%
42 New Hampshire 671 705 -34 -4.82%
43 Rhode Island 633 722 -89 -12.33%
44 South Dakota 497 664 -167 -25.15%
45 Idaho 741 813 -72 -8.86%
46 Vermont 600 608 -8 -1.32%
47 North Dakota 299 465 -166 -35.70%
48 Maine 509 539 -30 -5.57%
49 Montana 458 585 -127 -21.71%
50 Wyoming 326 419 -93 -22.20%
Entire U.S. 217040 231370 -14330 -6.19%

Will California’s Tax Proposal do any good?

California has always had a wild streak.  This week California’s new tax proposal reinforced that image.

The Commission on the New 21st Century Economy  issued its report this week on a radical new tax structure for California.  Like all political taxing plans it has its good and bad aspects.  It did, however, increase discussion about what California needs to do to become an attractive state for business and individuals.

Here are the recommendations of the Commission: (My comments are in red)

  • Reduce Personal Income Tax (PIT) for every taxpayer – Reduce the number of tax brackets from six to two. The new tax rate would be 2.75 percent for taxable income up to $56,000 for joint filers ($28,000 for single) and 6.5 percent for taxable income above that amount. These changes would retain the PIT’s progressive nature but reduce income tax rates for all taxpayers. The proposal would reduce the amount of income tax paid by 29 percent.  (This is Good)
  •  Eliminate the corporation tax and minimum tax – Eliminate the corporate tax, which is currently at 8.84 percent. The $800 minimum franchise tax should also be eliminated. (This is Good)
  •  Eliminate the state general purpose sales tax – Eliminate the current 5 percent state sales tax, with the exception of the sales tax on gas and diesel fuels which would continue to be dedicated to transportation. Elimination of the sales tax would phase in over five years. (This is Good)
  • Establish a business net receipts tax (BNRT) – Establish a new tax, not to exceed 4 percent, applied to the net receipts of businesses. Small businesses with less than $500,000 in gross annual receipts would be exempt from this tax. This tax would have a much broader base than the sales tax (since it would apply not only to goods but also to services and to sales into the state from businesses located outside the state) and, unlike the sales tax, be deductible against federal taxes. (This is very very Bad)
  •  Create an independent tax dispute forum – This forum would provide taxpayers with a forum for resolving disputes with the state. (This is Good)

I have discussed previously why California is a Worst State.  It over taxes, over regulates and is costly do business there.  See our previous post California Facts Suggest it is a Worst State

This proposal does not appear to fix these problems.  It just shuffles the burdens around a little by being according to the Commission “revenue neutral.”

“This is the most significant tax policy proposal in three decades,” said Assemblyman Chuck Devore (R-Irvine). “But the chances of this getting approved, as is, are zero percent.”  The LA Times reported the proposal is unlikely to pass.  See LA Times story Tax commission report falls flat, but it’s a start

With the U.S. in the midst of a severe job shrinkage, it is only a matter of time that some states and legislatures start getting serious about creating an environment conducive to job creation.  Cutting tax burdens and tax rates will be a strong first step in getting the job engine going.  California’s proposal unfortunately is not a step in the right direction. It will remain a Worst State for Taxes even if it passes the Commission’s recommendations.